A decision-support tool for risk and complexity assessment and visualization in construction projects

Date

2022-10-01

Author

Dikmen Toker, İrem
Atasoy Özcan, Güzide
EROL, HACI HÜSEYİN
Kaya, Hazal Deniz
Birgönül, Mustafa Talat

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© 2022 Elsevier B.V.Risk assessment in projects requires the integration of various information on project characteristics as well as external and internal sources of uncertainty and is based on assumptions about future and project vulnerability. Complexity is a major source of uncertainty that decreases the predictability of project outputs. In this research, the aim was to develop a decision-support tool that can estimate the level of risk and required contingency in a project by assessment of complexity factors as well as contextual information such as contract conditions and mitigation strategies. A process model and a tool were developed using the data of 11 mega construction projects. The tool was tested on a real project, and promising results were obtained about its usability. The tool has the potential to support decision-making during bidding in construction projects with its visualization and prediction features. On the other hand, as a limited number of cases and experts were involved in this study, findings on its performance cannot be generalized. The identified complexity and risk factors, proposed process model, and visual representations may help the development of similar decision-support tools according to different company needs.

Subject Keywords

Complexity, Contingency, Project management, Risk, Visualization

URI

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85129496890&origin=inward
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/97492

Journal

Computers in Industry

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compind.2022.103694

Collections

Department of Civil Engineering, Article

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AN EXPLORATORY STUDY ON COMPLEXITY IN MEGA CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS Bilgin, Gizem; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat; Department of Civil Engineering (2021-4) Megaprojects are known as complex projects that involve high levels of uncertainty. This thesis aims to explore perceived complexity in mega construction projects by lived experiences of project managers. For this purpose, data were obtained through semi-structured interviews with 18 participants from 11 mega construction projects carried out by construction professionals. The data was processed with a grounded theory approach and analyzed using the QSR NVivo qualitative data analysis software. Findings sho...
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Citation Formats

İ. Dikmen Toker, G. Atasoy Özcan, H. H. EROL, H. D. Kaya, and M. T. Birgönül, “A decision-support tool for risk and complexity assessment and visualization in construction projects,” Computers in Industry, vol. 141, pp. 0–0, 2022, Accessed: 00, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85129496890&origin=inward.