A decision-support tool for risk and complexity assessment and visualization in construction projects

Date

2022-10-01

Author

Dikmen Toker, İrem
Atasoy Özcan, Güzide
EROL, HACI HÜSEYİN
Kaya, Hazal Deniz
Birgönül, Mustafa Talat

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

277
views

0
downloads

© 2022 Elsevier B.V.Risk assessment in projects requires the integration of various information on project characteristics as well as external and internal sources of uncertainty and is based on assumptions about future and project vulnerability. Complexity is a major source of uncertainty that decreases the predictability of project outputs. In this research, the aim was to develop a decision-support tool that can estimate the level of risk and required contingency in a project by assessment of complexity factors as well as contextual information such as contract conditions and mitigation strategies. A process model and a tool were developed using the data of 11 mega construction projects. The tool was tested on a real project, and promising results were obtained about its usability. The tool has the potential to support decision-making during bidding in construction projects with its visualization and prediction features. On the other hand, as a limited number of cases and experts were involved in this study, findings on its performance cannot be generalized. The identified complexity and risk factors, proposed process model, and visual representations may help the development of similar decision-support tools according to different company needs.

Subject Keywords

Complexity, Contingency, Project management, Risk, Visualization

URI

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85129496890&origin=inward
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/97492

Journal

Computers in Industry

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compind.2022.103694

Collections

Department of Civil Engineering, Article

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

An integrated scheduling and control model for multi-mode projects Hazır, Öncü; Schmidt, Klaus Verner (2013-01-01) In today's highly competitive uncertain project environments, it is of crucial importance to develop analytical models and algorithms to schedule and control project activities so that the deviations from the project objectives are minimized. This paper addresses the integrated scheduling and control in multi-mode project environments. We propose an optimization model that models the dynamic behavior of projects and integrates optimal control into a practically relevant project scheduling problem. From the ...
AN EXPLORATORY STUDY ON COMPLEXITY IN MEGA CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS Bilgin, Gizem; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat; Department of Civil Engineering (2021-4) Megaprojects are known as complex projects that involve high levels of uncertainty. This thesis aims to explore perceived complexity in mega construction projects by lived experiences of project managers. For this purpose, data were obtained through semi-structured interviews with 18 participants from 11 mega construction projects carried out by construction professionals. The data was processed with a grounded theory approach and analyzed using the QSR NVivo qualitative data analysis software. Findings sho...
Exploring pattern of complexity in mega construction projects Bilgin, Gizem; Erol, Hacı Hüseyin; Atasoy Özcan, Güzide; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat (2022-11-01) Purpose Megaprojects are known as complex projects that involve high levels of uncertainty. This interpretive study explores and portrays perceived complexity in mega construction projects by lived experiences of project managers. Design/methodology/approach This study utilises a ground theory approach to analyse data gathered from semi-structured interviews with 18 professionals involved in 11 megaprojects. Findings Complexity in mega construction projects is defined as a project property that stems from t...
An analytic network process model for risk quantification of mega construction projects Erol, Hacı Hüseyin; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Atasoy Özcan, Güzide; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat (2022-04-01) Risk, complexity, and uncertainty are inherent components of megaprojects due to their unique features. However, existing project management practices lack a structured synthesis of these concepts, which leads to unrealistic risk assessments, ineffective management strategies, and poor project performance. In order to fill this gap, this research aims to develop a holistic risk quantification approach incorporating risk-related concepts. For this purpose, a conceptual risk assessment process developed for m...
A modified heuristic procedure for materials management in project networks Erbasi, A; Sepil, C (1999-06-01) A heuristic procedure for determining the tradeoff between expediting the ordering of materials and delaying the project is presented. The heuristic procedure is a modification of the procedure taken from the literature. With the use of an illustrative example, it has been shown that the modified procedure provides schedules with lower total cost values. Experimental results performed on randomly generated problems reveal that the modification can bring a decrease in total cost values as much as 52%.

Citation Formats

İ. Dikmen Toker, G. Atasoy Özcan, H. H. EROL, H. D. Kaya, and M. T. Birgönül, “A decision-support tool for risk and complexity assessment and visualization in construction projects,” Computers in Industry, vol. 141, pp. 0–0, 2022, Accessed: 00, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85129496890&origin=inward.