An analytic network process model for risk quantification of mega construction projects

Date

2022-04-01

Author

Erol, Hacı Hüseyin
Dikmen Toker, İrem
Atasoy Özcan, Güzide
Birgönül, Mustafa Talat

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Risk, complexity, and uncertainty are inherent components of megaprojects due to their unique features. However, existing project management practices lack a structured synthesis of these concepts, which leads to unrealistic risk assessments, ineffective management strategies, and poor project performance. In order to fill this gap, this research aims to develop a holistic risk quantification approach incorporating risk-related concepts. For this purpose, a conceptual risk assessment process developed for mega construction projects was operationalized with an Analytic Network Process (ANP) model. The weights of the risk sources in the ANP model were determined by the domain experts through a two-round Delphi study. With the purpose of improving the efficiency and reliability of the knowledge elicitation process, the Delphi study was supported by an interactive data collection tool capable of ANP calculations. The resulting model helped to prioritize the risk sources in mega construction projects. The validity of the findings was tested through the data of 11 mega construction projects. Validation studies revealed the potential of the ANP-based model in quantifying the project risks. Hence, the novel approach proposed in this study is expected to contribute both to the literature by unveiling the interactions between risk-related concepts and to the practitioners by assisting them in assessing the project risks more realistically. Although the risk quantification model has been developed for mega construction projects, it can also be implemented in other project-based industries with minor modifications.

Subject Keywords

Analytic network process, Complexity, Management strategies, Mega construction projects, Risk, Uncertainty

URI

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85120441433&origin=inward
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/95992

Journal

Expert Systems with Applications

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2021.116215

Collections

Department of Civil Engineering, Article

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AN EXPLORATORY STUDY ON COMPLEXITY IN MEGA CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS Bilgin, Gizem; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat; Department of Civil Engineering (2021-4) Megaprojects are known as complex projects that involve high levels of uncertainty. This thesis aims to explore perceived complexity in mega construction projects by lived experiences of project managers. For this purpose, data were obtained through semi-structured interviews with 18 participants from 11 mega construction projects carried out by construction professionals. The data was processed with a grounded theory approach and analyzed using the QSR NVivo qualitative data analysis software. Findings sho...
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Citation Formats

H. H. Erol, İ. Dikmen Toker, G. Atasoy Özcan, and M. T. Birgönül, “An analytic network process model for risk quantification of mega construction projects,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 191, pp. 0–0, 2022, Accessed: 00, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85120441433&origin=inward.