PROPENSITY SCORE MATCHING IN THE ELECTION FORECASTING BY FOCUSING ON "UNDECIDED" VOTERS

Download

10493025.pdf

Date

2022-8-17

Author

Köse, Zelal Toprak

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

164
views

168
downloads

How to deal with "undecided" voters is a big worry among those who conduct and analyze pre-election polls. This group makes it difficult to make inferences about elections so it is important to understand the behavior of undecided voters before making election forecasting. Undecided voters may determine the fate of the next elections in Turkey. This thesis aims to predict the outcome of the next parliamentary election in Turkey using findings of opinion polls based on the undecided voters. In order to analyze the data set, Propensity Score Matching (PSM) is performed. After voters' propensity scores (PS) are calculated, the pairs between decided ("Treated") and undecided ("Control") voters are formed according to their PSs. In order to estimate propensity score, the logistic model, neural network and random forests are conducted. After estimating the propensity score, among the matching methods, the nearest neighbor matching, optimal matching and mahalanobis metric distance are used. With Nearest Neighbor Matching (NNM), for each undecided voter, the algorithm finds a voter in the control group with the nearest PS. The proposed method of the thesis is the NNM with replacement using Mahalanobis distance because it reaches the most successful matching rate with 77.5%. With this method, while Public Alliance wins the next parliamentary election by 10.6 points according to the 2020 data, the Nation Alliance takes the lead by 4.2 points in 2021. Moreover, the balance in covariate distributions between treatment and control groups is checked by using some diagnostic methods.

Subject Keywords

election forecasting, propensity score analysis, matching methods, Mahalanobis Distance

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/99400

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

UNDERSTANDING THE VOTING MOTIVATIONS OF THE JUSTICE AND DEVELOPMENT PARTY VOTERS Süzen Akkaya, Esra; Şen, Mustafa; Department of Sociology (2022-6) This study addresses how the Justice and Development Party voters perceive and make sense of their support towards the party. Despite its changing political stance, opinion polls show that an important mass of voters is still willing to vote for the party. Thus, the thesis problematizes why some voters continue to vote for the party. During the time that the party was in power, some voters had changes in their attitudes towards the party and acted differently. Therefore, the study aims to understand how the...
Auditable and verifiable electronic voting with homomorphic RSA tallying Yücel, Okan; Baykal, Nazife; Department of Information Systems (2010) In this work, we investigate the general structure and the concepts behind the contemporary electronic voting schemes, with special emphasis on voter verifiable preferential voting, homomorphic tallying and voter privacy. We firstly propose a modification in the Single Transferable Voting (STV) method to be applied to large scale elections with electoral barriers. Our proposal prevents the loss of votes and distributes them securely to the second or higher choices of their voters. This method is most suitab...
İSTİSMARCI YÖNETİM ALGISI: LİDER CİNSİYETİ, ÇALIŞANCİNSİYETİ VE LİDER-ÇALIŞAN İLİŞKİSİNDE CİNSİYET BENZERLİĞİETKİSİNİN İNCELENMESİ Acar, Feride Pınar (null; 2019-11-02) Çalışma, toplumsal cinsiyetin, yıkıcı liderlik türlerinden istismarcı yönetim algısıüzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktadır. Toplumsal cinsiyetin liderlik algısına etkisiniaraştıran çalışmalar genellikle olumlu liderlik türlerine odaklanmış olup istismarcıyönetim algısında toplumsal cinsiyet rollerinin etkisi henüz keşfedilmemiştir. Kadın veerkeklerin nasıl davrandığını ve nasıl davranması gerektiğini ortaya koyan toplumsalcinsiyet rollerinden hareketle, çalışma,...
Voter Verifiable and Single Transferable Electronic Voting for Elections with Electoral Barriers Yucel, Okan; Baykal, Nazife (2009-06-30) "Voter verifiability" is a notion offered by some electronic voting schemes, which develops into an important issue of democracy in the electronic world. The idea is to endow each voter with the facility of verifying that his vote is counted correctly. The check mechanism for the correct count of the vote can be provided by means of a voting receipt. On the other hand, whenever one has a receipt that serves to check the correct casting and tallying of the vote, it can also be used as the proof for the conte...
Use of Bibliotherapy Method to Prevent Peer Bullying Taneri, Pervin Oya; Akduman, Nalan (Uluslararası Eğitim Araştırmacıları Derneği; 2019-10-20) Bir kişinin, diğer bir kişi veya kişiler tarafından kasıtlı, olarak bir süre olumsuz davranışlarla maruz kalması olarak tanımlanan akran zorbalığı, dünyada ve Türkiye’de ilkokul öğrencileri arasında giderek artan bir sorun halini almıştır. Araştırmalar zorbalığının erken yaşlarda önleyici programlar yardımıyla azaltılabileceğine işaret etmektedir. Hikâyelerin eğitim ve farkındalık amaçlı kullanımı anlamına gelen bibliyoterapi, akran zorbalığını önlemede son yıllarda sıkça başvurulan yöntemlerden biridir. Al...

Citation Formats

Z. T. Köse, “PROPENSITY SCORE MATCHING IN THE ELECTION FORECASTING BY FOCUSING ON “UNDECIDED” VOTERS,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2022.