Evaluation of the WRF & WRF-Hydro modeling system to better understand the hydrometeorological interactions over humid and semi-arid climate conditions

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2022-10-7

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Düzenli, Eren

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Changing climate causes extreme weather events, such as heavy precipitation and flash floods, to occur more destructive and frequently. Thus, it is worthwhile to perform a reliable prediction of hydrometeorological circumstances reasonably before extreme events occur. Similarly, robust estimation of future weather conditions would contribute significantly to long-term water management issues, one of the most crucial problems of our time. Accordingly, this study evaluates the skill of (un)coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro system to estimate hydrometeorological variables for both short-term and long-term periods under humid and semi-arid climate conditions. Firstly, a sensitivity analysis of the model physics and initial and lateral boundary data source on the precipitation outputs of the standalone WRF model is conducted for some short-term extreme precipitation events over the Eastern Black Sea (EBS; a humid region) and Mediterranean (MED; a semi-arid region) regions. The sensitivity analysis is repeated for different seasons (i.e., autumn and summer) and spatial resolutions of the model domains (i.e., 9 km and 3 km). The aim here is to construct a reliable early warning system for two flood-prone regions of Turkey. Secondly, the WRF model is coupled with a hydrologic model, WRF-Hydro. The coupled model is initiated with Soil Moisture Active Passive level 4 (SMAP) data. These analyses aim to improve the simulation of the energy fluxes between the land and the atmosphere. According to the results of the first part, the model physics are generally more influential than the initial and lateral boundary data source on extreme precipitation variability. For the second part, the fully coupled models correct the location and magnitude of the occurrence of hourly extreme precipitation. Changing the initial soil moisture data source affects the terrestrial water cycle elements in the semi-arid region more than in the humid area, especially in spring and summer, which are drier periods.

Subject Keywords

WRF & WRF-Hydro Coupling, Extreme Event Simulation, Terrestrial Water Cycle, Land Surface Energy Fluxes, Sensitivity Analysis

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/99764

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Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

E. Düzenli, “Evaluation of the WRF & WRF-Hydro modeling system to better understand the hydrometeorological interactions over humid and semi-arid climate conditions,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2022.