Evaluation of the WRF & WRF-Hydro modeling system to better understand the hydrometeorological interactions over humid and semi-arid climate conditions

Download

Thesis_ED.pdf

Date

2022-10-7

Author

Düzenli, Eren

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

397
views

452
downloads

Changing climate causes extreme weather events, such as heavy precipitation and flash floods, to occur more destructive and frequently. Thus, it is worthwhile to perform a reliable prediction of hydrometeorological circumstances reasonably before extreme events occur. Similarly, robust estimation of future weather conditions would contribute significantly to long-term water management issues, one of the most crucial problems of our time. Accordingly, this study evaluates the skill of (un)coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro system to estimate hydrometeorological variables for both short-term and long-term periods under humid and semi-arid climate conditions. Firstly, a sensitivity analysis of the model physics and initial and lateral boundary data source on the precipitation outputs of the standalone WRF model is conducted for some short-term extreme precipitation events over the Eastern Black Sea (EBS; a humid region) and Mediterranean (MED; a semi-arid region) regions. The sensitivity analysis is repeated for different seasons (i.e., autumn and summer) and spatial resolutions of the model domains (i.e., 9 km and 3 km). The aim here is to construct a reliable early warning system for two flood-prone regions of Turkey. Secondly, the WRF model is coupled with a hydrologic model, WRF-Hydro. The coupled model is initiated with Soil Moisture Active Passive level 4 (SMAP) data. These analyses aim to improve the simulation of the energy fluxes between the land and the atmosphere. According to the results of the first part, the model physics are generally more influential than the initial and lateral boundary data source on extreme precipitation variability. For the second part, the fully coupled models correct the location and magnitude of the occurrence of hourly extreme precipitation. Changing the initial soil moisture data source affects the terrestrial water cycle elements in the semi-arid region more than in the humid area, especially in spring and summer, which are drier periods.

Subject Keywords

WRF & WRF-Hydro Coupling, Extreme Event Simulation, Terrestrial Water Cycle, Land Surface Energy Fluxes, Sensitivity Analysis

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/99764

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Evaluation of a Hydro-Meteorological Model System for Flood Forecasting of a Mediterranean Basin in Turkey Kılıçarslan, Berina; Duzenli, Eren; Pilatin, Heves; Yücel, İsmail; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul (null; 2020-05-08) Floods, which are considered as one of the most destructive extreme weather events, are being more severe issues with changing climate, and they are threatening both human life and property. To address flood hazard issues, this study evaluates the application of a hydro-meteorological model system as an early warning system approach. The Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological model system (WRF-Hydro), a fully-distributed, multi-physics, multi-scale hydrologic model, has the capability of accurately c...
Evaluating the use of radar precipitation data in simulating a flood event in Terme Samsun Turkey Akyürek, Sevda Zuhal (2016-10-10) Floods caused by convective storms in mountainous regions are sensitive to the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation. In developing countries, researches and authorities working on this issue have to deal with lack of data. Even a dense raingauge network may not be able to state variability of the precipitation patterns especially in mountainous regions. Space-time estimates of rainfall from weather radar can be a remedy to represent pattern of the rainfall with some inaccuracy. In the field of ...
Evaluation of the impact of public space design on the land surface temperature by using geographical information systems: the example of Taksim Square Urban Design Competition Kızılca, Aybüke Bihter; Severcan, Yücel Can; Leloğlu, Uğur Murat; Department of Geodetic and Geographical Information Technologies (2022-2-09) Urban areas are heating due to climate change and anthropogenic heat release. Increasing temperature negatively affects people, nature, and ecosystems. Many factors trigger the temperature increase in cities, including traffic, increasing population density and surface temperatures, etc. Public spaces are urban areas where increasing temperatures affect daily life most. Therefore, the materials and elements preferred in public spaces covering most city surfaces are crucial in controlling Land Surface Temper...
Linear and Nonlinear Responses of Turkish Extreme Rainfall Oscillations to Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulations Düzenli, Eren; Willems, Patrick; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul (null; 2019-04-07) Investigating the underlying drivers behind the extreme precipitation variability contributes greatly to the ongoing debate on reducing the harmful effects of extreme events such as droughts and flash floods. It is very essential to explore characteristics of the relationship between extreme precipitation and spatially large-scale atmosphere-ocean interaction patterns, which are one of the main factors for the naturally occurred periods of high and low precipitation. Correspondingly, this study aims to sear...
Decadal variability analysis of extreme precipitation in Turkey and its relationship with teleconnection patterns Duzenli, Eren; Tabari, Hossein; Willems, Patrick; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul (2018-11-15) Natural disasters such as droughts and floods originate as a consequence of excessive high or low precipitation amount and/or frequency. Due to the temporal persistence of the latter, the disasters tend to cluster in time. Because global ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns with (multi-) decadal oscillations are tightly related with the precipitation variability, it is useful to analyse precipitation variability at the same timescale to understand any possible connection between them. In this study, dec...

Citation Formats

E. Düzenli, “Evaluation of the WRF & WRF-Hydro modeling system to better understand the hydrometeorological interactions over humid and semi-arid climate conditions,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2022.