Decadal variability analysis of extreme precipitation in Turkey and its relationship with teleconnection patterns

Duzenli, Eren
Tabari, Hossein
Willems, Patrick
Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul
Natural disasters such as droughts and floods originate as a consequence of excessive high or low precipitation amount and/or frequency. Due to the temporal persistence of the latter, the disasters tend to cluster in time. Because global ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns with (multi-) decadal oscillations are tightly related with the precipitation variability, it is useful to analyse precipitation variability at the same timescale to understand any possible connection between them. In this study, decadal oscillations of daily extreme precipitation are investigated using quantile perturbation method for 65 stations in Turkey for the period 1955-2014. Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Western Mediterranean Oscillation teleconnection patterns are examined for their relation with the extreme precipitation variability. The analyses are conducted for four climatic seasons and seven subregions. According to the analysis based on single drivers, NAO is identified as the most effective driver of Turkish extreme precipitation variability in winter, especially over regions influenced by the Mediterranean climate, whereas AO has a similar effect. When the teleconnection patterns are investigated in pairs, the combination of the NAO and SOI results in the strongest influence on the winter extremes. Though obvious differences are not recorded between the results of linear and nonlinear methods for single driver analysis, the nonlinear method is superior for the multiple driver analysis.


Decadal variability analysis of extreme precipitation in Turkey and its relationship with teleconnection patterns
Düzenli, Eren; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul; Willems, Patrick; Department of Civil Engineering (2017)
Natural disasters as droughts and floods originate as a consequence of excessive decrease or increase in precipitation amount and/or frequency, while the variability in the climate significantly impacts the expected change in precipitation. Given that many global ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns (AO, WeMO, NAO, SOI, etc.) are tightly related with the climate variability and show decadal/multi-decadal oscillations, it is important to analyze precipitation variability at the decadal time-scale to unde...
Extreme precipitation and drought monitoring in northeastern China using general circulation models and pan evaporation-based drought indices
Faiz, Muhammad Abrar; Liu, Dong; Fu, Qiang; Wrzesinski, Dariusz; Baig, Faisal; Nabi, Ghulam; Khan, Muhammad Imran; Li, Tianxiao; Cui, Song (2018-01-01)
The evaluation of precipitation extremes and the usage of appropriate drought indices are very important for assessment of natural disasters (i.e. floods and drought). For this purpose, we calculated values of indices that reflect precipitation extremes and 3 drought indices, i.e. the composite index (CI), standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and reconnaissance drought index (RDI), with reformulation of pan evaporation and Penman-Monteith equations (denoted as CI-Pan, RDI-Pan, RDI-PM,...
Linear and Nonlinear Responses of Turkish Extreme Rainfall Oscillations to Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulations
Düzenli, Eren; Willems, Patrick; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul (null; 2019-04-07)
Investigating the underlying drivers behind the extreme precipitation variability contributes greatly to the ongoing debate on reducing the harmful effects of extreme events such as droughts and flash floods. It is very essential to explore characteristics of the relationship between extreme precipitation and spatially large-scale atmosphere-ocean interaction patterns, which are one of the main factors for the naturally occurred periods of high and low precipitation. Correspondingly, this study aims to sear...
Evaluation of the WRF & WRF-Hydro modeling system to better understand the hydrometeorological interactions over humid and semi-arid climate conditions
Düzenli, Eren; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul; Yücel, İsmail; Department of Civil Engineering (2022-10-7)
Changing climate causes extreme weather events, such as heavy precipitation and flash floods, to occur more destructive and frequently. Thus, it is worthwhile to perform a reliable prediction of hydrometeorological circumstances reasonably before extreme events occur. Similarly, robust estimation of future weather conditions would contribute significantly to long-term water management issues, one of the most crucial problems of our time. Accordingly, this study evaluates the skill of (un)coupled WRF/WRF-Hyd...
Rainfall-triggered landslides in an unsaturated soil: a laboratory flume study
Ahmadi-Adli, Mohammad; Huvaj Sarıhan, Nejan; Toker, Nabi Kartal (2017-11-01)
Extreme and/or prolonged rainfall events frequently cause landslides in many parts of the world. In this study, infiltration of rainfall into an unsaturated soil slope and triggering of landslides is studied through laboratory model (flume) tests, with the goal of obtaining the triggering rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) threshold. Flume tests with fine sand at two different relative densities (34 and 48%) and at slope angle of 56.5 degrees are prepared, and rainfall (intensity in the range of 18 to 64 mm/...
Citation Formats
E. Duzenli, H. Tabari, P. Willems, and M. T. Yılmaz, “Decadal variability analysis of extreme precipitation in Turkey and its relationship with teleconnection patterns,” HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, pp. 3513–3528, 2018, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: