Analysis of local sectoral policies via system dynamics approach: the case of Alanya tourism sector

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Date

2009

Author

Dumbar, Burcu

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The purpose of this work is indicating System Dynamics Approach to be an appropriate tool for analysis of policies suggested for local sectors. Local sectors are very important for stability of the country’s economy as well as welfare of the local community. Therefore, feasible and effective policies should be created and implemented in order to contribute to the local sectoral development. But before any policy implementation, policy analysis is required on to evaluate whether effectiveness and feasibility would be ensured in alternative policies. In this study, firstly the issues of Local Sectoral Dynamics and Policies are examined and specifically, the situation in Alanya Tourism Sector is studied. Afterwards, in accordance with policy analysis steps, problems of Alanya Tourism Sector are detailed and alternative policies that would aid in solution of the problem are idenfined. For evaluation of alternative policies, Dynamics of Alanya Tourism Sector are modeled by System Dynamics approach and the ‘Formal Model’ is implemented in Stella 9.0.1. The model is simulated for all policy alternatives and the policy outcomes of each alternative are forecasted. Finally the performance of each policy are evaluated using the previously established criteria and combined policies having more superior outcomes than the present ones are created.

Subject Keywords

Industrial engineering., Tourism

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/2/12610684/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/18613

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

B. Dumbar, “ Analysis of local sectoral policies via system dynamics approach: the case of Alanya tourism sector ,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2009.