Air passenger demand forecasting for planned airports, case study : Zafer and Or-gi airports in Turkey

Download

index.pdf

Date

2011

Author

Yazıcı, Rıza Onur

Metadata

Show full item record

Item Usage Stats

43
views

21
downloads

The economic evaluation of a new airport investment requires the use of estimated future air passenger demand.Today it is well known that air passenger demand is basicly dependent on various socioeconomic factors of the country and the region where the planned airport would serve. This study is focused on estimating the future air passenger demand for planned airports in Turkey where the historical air passsenger data is not available.For these purposses, neural networks and multi-linear regression were used to develop forecasting models. As independent variables,twelve socioeconomic parameters are found to be significant and used in models. The available data for the selected indicators are statistically analysed and it is observed that most of the data is highly volatile, heteroscedastic and show no definite patterns. In order to develop more reliable models, various methods like data transformation, outlier elimination and categorization are applied to the data.Only seven of total twelve indicators are used as the most significant in the regression model whereas in neural network approach the best model is achieved when all the twelve indicators are included. Both models can be used to predict air passenger demand for any future year for Or-Gi and Zafer Airports and future air passenger demand for similar airports. Regression and neural models are tested by using various statistical test methods and it is found that neural network model is superior to regression model for the data used in this study.

Subject Keywords

Airlines, Airports

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12612933/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/20411

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Robust Airline Scheduling with Controllable Cruise Times and Chance Constraints Duran, A. Serasu; Gürel, Sinan; Akturk, M. Selim (2015-01-02) Robust airline schedules can be considered as flight schedules that are likely to minimize passenger delay. Airlines usually add an additional time-e.g., schedule padding-to scheduled gate-to-gate flight times to make their schedules less susceptible to variability and disruptions. There is a critical trade-off between any kind of buffer time and daily aircraft productivity. Aircraft speed control is a practical alternative to inserting idle times into schedules. In this study, block times are considered in...
REFUNCTIONING PROPOSALS OF AIRPORTS AND AVIATION BUILDINGS FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF INDUSTRIAL HERITAGE: CASE OF ISTANBUL ATATURK AIRPORT Uraz, Can; Zelef, Mustafa Haluk; Department of Architecture (2021-9-09) Progress and expansion on the aviation industry in the recent times force airports and aviation buildings to either be improved or be abandoned. Considering the latest statistics of vacant airports and different effects emerging lately all over the world, it can be predicted that the pressure on the physical spaces of aviation will increasingly continue. However, since “airport” as a new typology appearing from the early 20th century could satisfy the expectations of the industry up to recent past, abandonm...
Integrated aircraft-path assignment and robust schedule design with cruise speed control Safak, Ozge; Gürel, Sinan; Akturk, M. Selim (2017-08-01) Assignment of aircraft types, each having different seat capacity, operational expenses and availabilities, critically affects airlines' overall cost. In this paper, we assign fleet types to paths by considering not only flight timing and passenger demand, as commonly done in the literature, but also operational expenses, such as fuel burn and carbon emission costs associated with adjusting the cruise speed to ensure the passenger connections. In response to flight time uncertainty due to the airport conges...
Evaluation of the pricing preferences and value of time for high speed rail (HSR) users in Turkey Tüydeş Yaman, Hediye; Dalkıç Melek, Gülçin (2019-01-01) High Speed Rail (HSR), a new intercity passenger mode in Turkey, has high travel time reduction potential and competes against both road and air travel modes. A survey among the current HSR users showed that pricing at intercity bus ticket level is a factor increasing the preferability of HSR. If HSR ticket price is more than bus ticket price, 60 0 of the HSR users stated to prefer HSR, while only 40 0 stated preference, if HSR is priced equal to air ticket prices. Binary logit models developed in the study...
Aircraft Rescheduling with Cruise Speed Control Akturk, M. Selim; ATAMTÜRK, Alper; Gürel, Sinan (2014-07-01) Airline operations are subject to frequent disruptions typically due to unexpected aircraft maintenance requirements and undesirable weather conditions. Recovery from a disruption often involves propagating delays in downstream flights and increasing cruise stage speed when possible in an effort to contain the delays. However, there is a critical trade-off between fuel consumption (and its adverse impact on air quality and greenhouse gas emissions) and cruise speed. Here we consider delays caused by such di...

Citation Formats

R. O. Yazıcı, “Air passenger demand forecasting for planned airports, case study : Zafer and Or-gi airports in Turkey,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2011.