Influence of seismic source and ground motion modeling on the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the city of Van after the 23 october 2011 mw7.2 earthquake

Download

index.pdf

Date

2013

Author

Şenyurt, Mehtap

Metadata

Show full item record

Item Usage Stats

213
views

86
downloads

Reliable assessment of seismic hazard is the most important step for seismic design and performance assessment of structural systems. However, the inherent uncertainty in earthquakes as well as modeling of ground motion may affect the hazard computed for a particular region. This study investigates the influence of seismic source and ground motion modeling on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). The study considers the seismicity around the city of Van to achieve its objective as this city was hit by a major earthquake on 23 October 2011 (Mw 7.2) that was followed by another significant event on 9 November 2011 (Mw 5.6). These two earthquakes caused loss of a substantial number of lives and left many locals homeless with a huge socio-economic impact. They re-emphasized the importance of seismic induced hazard in the region and uncertainties involved both in source and ground-motion variability to quantify hazard in the region. The importance of each input parameter in PSHA is depicted by studying the uncertainties that are ranked through sensitivity analysis. A multi-parameter approach that is proposed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg (1991) is utilized in sensitivity analysis. The method not only indicates the individual effects of each input parameter but also portrays the interaction between the input PSHA parameters. The study accounts for the uncertainty in PSHA by considering the variations in the estimation of ground motion intensity measure, the level of standard deviation, earthquake catalog information, selection of recurrence models, selection of maximum magnitude and slip rate of the faults in the region of interest. The individual effects of these parameters and their mutual interactions are examined by using the aforementioned multi-parameter sensitivity approach. The calculations are done for peak ground acceleration (PGA) as well as pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) ordinates at T = 0.2s and T = 1.0s (i.e., PSA(T=0.2s) and PSA(T=1.0s)). The return periods chosen for the sensitivity analyses are 72, 475 and 2475 years that are used by the Turkish Earthquake Code (TEC, 2007) for seismic design and performance assessment of building structures. The discussions presented in this thesis can be used for deriving the design spectra for the above return periods for future engineering studies in the city of Van and surrounding regions.

Subject Keywords

Earthquake engineering., Earthquake hazard analysis., Seismic event location.

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12616467/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/23075

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Derivation of site-specific UHS based on simulated ground motions and its parametric effects on building fragility Azari Sisi, Aida; Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül; Department of Civil Engineering (2016) Estimation of seismic demands is essential for the purpose of structural seismic design and analyses. It is significant to obtain reliable ground motion amplitudes to estimate seismic damage on structures in a realistic manner. The ground motion simulation methodologies provide a physical approach to estimate seismic demands in the regions with sparse recording data and scarce networks. This dissertation consists of two main parts: In the first part, site-specific uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) of Erzincan r...
Effects of seismic source model parameters on the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment results Vakilinezhad, Marjan; Gülerce, Zeynep; Department of Civil Engineering (2015) The inputs to the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) contain large uncertainties regarding the seismic source model parameters; therefore, the results may vary significantly due to subjective judgment and interpretation of the limited data. The objective of this study is to show the effect of seismic source model on the hazard results by quantifying the difference in the design ground motions for different risk levels at different locations around an active tectonic structure. Analysis showed that...
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for east anatolian fault zone using planar source models Menekşe, Akın; Gülerce, Zeynep; Department of Civil Engineering (2015) The objective of this study is to perform probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) using planar seismic source characterization models for East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) and to update the design ground motions to be used in the region. Development of planar seismic source models requires the definition of source geometry in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane angles and segmentation points for each segment and associating the observed seismicity with defined fault systems. This complicat...
Ground motion prediction equations based on simulated ground motions Gür, Kader; Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül; Kale, Özkan; Department of Earthquake Studies (2018) Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) are one of the key elements in seismic hazard assessment to estimate ground motion intensity measures by basically taking into account source, path and site effects. Most of the existing predictive models are derived from databases compiled from real (or observed) ground motion data. However, in data-poor regions, a novel practice to develop new GMPEs is to use simulated or hybrid ground motion datasets for performing reliable seismic hazard analysis. Simulations o...
Energy based seismic assessment and design Alıcı, Fırat Soner; Sucuoğlu, Haluk; Erberik, Murat Altuğ; Department of Civil Engineering (2019) The need to improve the reliability of current earthquake resistant design procedures has promoted energy-based concepts that employ seismic input energy and energy dissipation capacity of structures as the main design tools. Energy based approaches provide effective tools at both design and assessment stages for a comprehensive interpretation of the seismic behavior of structural systems during an earthquake excitation. Energy based assessment and design procedure includes two crucial aspects. The first on...

Citation Formats

M. Şenyurt, “Influence of seismic source and ground motion modeling on the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the city of Van after the 23 october 2011 mw7.2 earthquake,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2013.