Effects of climate change on water resources in Ömerli basin

Download
2014
Kara, Fatih
This study investigates the impacts of climate change on water resources through precipitation and discharge analyses in Omerli catchment Istanbul, Turkey. Precipitation and temperature data are obtained from GCM (Global Circulation Model)/RCM (Regional Climate Model) combinations based on A1B carbon scenario via Europen Union (EU)-ENSEMBLESproject. The data is obtained at 25 km resolution on daily time scale for reference period between 1960 and 1990 and future period between 2071 and 2100. The HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdel-ning) model is used to investigate discharge properties of study area. First the HBV is calibrated by some of catchment properties along with PEST (parameter estimation) method. Because RCM scale is comparatively coarse (25 km) for catchment scale its results are downscaled to 1 km using the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) method. RCM precipitation with and without GWR method are evaluated for characteristics of extreme precipitation events and they are used in the HBV model for estimating the extreme discharges along with reference and future periods. All RCMs strongly underestimate precipitation. GWR improves underestimation tendency of RCMs precipitation especially for extreme events. Depending on precipitation inputfrom RCMs with and without GWR the HBV also shows significant underestimation in daily and extreme runoff but it provides better estimates with GWR input. The magnitude ofextreme events increases in winter, spring, and summer but decreases in fall from reference to future period. Return periods of the extreme events increase in the future period and therefore, Omerli Basin is under water stress with changing climate.

Suggestions

Climate change and future proofing infrastructure: Etimesgut, Ankara case study
Oruç, Sertaç; Yılmaz, Ayşen; Yücel, İsmail; Department of Earth System Science (2018)
This study examines the potential impacts of climate change and land use/cover change; investigates how to incorporate these changes into urban stormwater network design. Rainfall analysis with stationary and nonstationary approach for observed and future conditions is performed for the (1950-2015 period) observed data and projections (2015-2098 period) for Ankara province, Turkey. Daily projections are disaggregated to finer scales and used for future period the analysis. Nonstationary Generalized Extreme ...
The Impact of climate change on agricultural production in Mediterranean countries
Atay, Mehmet Ufuk; Sarı, Ramazan; Yücel, İsmail; Department of Earth System Science (2015)
The aim of the study is to determine the impact of climate change on agriculture for Mediterranean countries by employing vulnerability and econometric analysis. At first step, a composite agricultural vulnerability index is created by principal component analysis (PCA) for Mediterranean counties and world’s top 35 cereal producer countries. Then, based on index scores, countries are grouped by cluster analysis. Several indicators are selected from different international databases according to three compon...
Changes in precipitation climatology for the Eastern Mediterranean using CORDEX RCMs, NHRCM and MRI-AGCM
Mesta, Buket; Sasaki, Hidetaka; Nakaegawa, Tosiyuki; Kentel Erdoğan, Elçin (2022-07-01)
© 2022Mediterranean Basin is expected to be one of the regions most severely impacted by global climate change. However, the complex interactions of driving forces of climate in the region create a challenge for climate projections for the future. Findings from climate change studies support the inter-model and inter-regional variability of projections on climate change impacts. On the other hand, the studies on the evaluation of the simulation skills of high-resolution climate models for the region particu...
Impacts of climate change on water resources on eastern mountainous region of Turkey
Güventürk, Abdülkadir; Yücel, İsmail; Department of Civil Engineering (2013)
Temperature and precipitation are the most important indicators of climate change. Especially for the basins fed by snow, the shifts of melting to earlier times, affects the streamflow. Increase in temperature causes to shifts of melting of snow to shift to earlier times so that hydrologic regime of the river system changes, and leads to changes in climatic conditions of the region. In this study the shifts of snow melting times are analyzed for the selected 15 streamflow stations located in Euphrates, Tigr...
Influences of climate and nutrient enrichment on the multiple trophic levels of Turkish shallow lakes
Beklioğlu, Meryem; Levi, Eti E.; Erdogan, Seyda; Ozen, Arda; Filiz, Nur; Bezirci, Gizem; Cakiroglu, Ayse Idil; Tavsanoglu, U. Nihan; Gökçe, Didem; Demir, Nilsun; Ozulug, Mufit; Duran, Mustafa; Özkan, Korhan; Jeppesen, Erik (2020-04-01)
Climate warming threatens the structure and function of shallow lakes, not least those in the Mediterranean climate. We used a space-for-time substitution approach to assess the response of trophic and community structures as well as the richness and evenness of multiple trophic levels to temperature, hydrological, and nutrient constraints. We selected 41 lakes covering wide climatic, hydrological, and nutrient gradients within a short distance for reducing the effect of biogeographical factors in the weste...
Citation Formats
F. Kara, “Effects of climate change on water resources in Ömerli basin,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2014.