Decadal variability analysis of extreme precipitation in Turkey and its relationship with teleconnection patterns

Düzenli, Eren
Natural disasters as droughts and floods originate as a consequence of excessive decrease or increase in precipitation amount and/or frequency, while the variability in the climate significantly impacts the expected change in precipitation. Given that many global ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns (AO, WeMO, NAO, SOI, etc.) are tightly related with the climate variability and show decadal/multi-decadal oscillations, it is important to analyze precipitation variability at the decadal time-scale to understand the (expected) variability in the climate more effectively. In this study, decadal oscillations of extreme precipitation in Turkey are investigated using Quantile Perturbation Method (QPM). Daily precipitation data observed over 67 stations in Turkey between 1955 and 2014 are utilized in the analyses. AO, WeMO, NAO, and SOI teleconnection patterns are examined for their relation with the extreme precipitation variability to understand the potential drivers of extreme precipitation in Turkey. According to the analysis based on single drivers, NAO is identified as the most effective driver of Turkey’s extreme precipitation among 4 climate indices, while AO has a similar effect. When the teleconnection patterns are investigated in pairs, combination of NAO and SOI results in the highest response to the winter extremes in Turkey.


Decadal variability analysis of extreme precipitation in Turkey and its relationship with teleconnection patterns
Duzenli, Eren; Tabari, Hossein; Willems, Patrick; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul (2018-11-15)
Natural disasters such as droughts and floods originate as a consequence of excessive high or low precipitation amount and/or frequency. Due to the temporal persistence of the latter, the disasters tend to cluster in time. Because global ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns with (multi-) decadal oscillations are tightly related with the precipitation variability, it is useful to analyse precipitation variability at the same timescale to understand any possible connection between them. In this study, dec...
Comparing ecological structure of Turkish shallow lakes between the seasons, and wet & dry years
Çağan, Ali Serhan; Beklioğlu, Meryem; Department of Biology (2015)
Due to global climate change, lakes in Mediterranean climate face the problem of reduced precipitation and enhanced evaporation along with increased water abstraction for irrigation that are largely causing changes in water level, salinity and nutrient dynamics. In this study 22 Turkish shallow lakes were investigated in the Mediterranean climate zone. All lakes were sampled with a well-established snapshot sampling protocol. There are 19 lakes, which were sampled once during both spring and summer seasons ...
Extreme precipitation and drought monitoring in northeastern China using general circulation models and pan evaporation-based drought indices
Faiz, Muhammad Abrar; Liu, Dong; Fu, Qiang; Wrzesinski, Dariusz; Baig, Faisal; Nabi, Ghulam; Khan, Muhammad Imran; Li, Tianxiao; Cui, Song (2018-01-01)
The evaluation of precipitation extremes and the usage of appropriate drought indices are very important for assessment of natural disasters (i.e. floods and drought). For this purpose, we calculated values of indices that reflect precipitation extremes and 3 drought indices, i.e. the composite index (CI), standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and reconnaissance drought index (RDI), with reformulation of pan evaporation and Penman-Monteith equations (denoted as CI-Pan, RDI-Pan, RDI-PM,...
Drought analysis using CORDEX simulations over the mediterranean climate regions of Turkey
Poyraz, Anıl Yıldırım; Yücel, İsmail; Department of Civil Engineering (2018)
Drought has been a significant result of climate change that causes variance on precipitation regimes. Mediterranean region is one of the hotspots of the world in this respect. Dry summers and rainy winters -the characteristic of this climate type- makes this region more vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Hence, it is important to monitor drought considering the increasing population and economic facilities in the regions that are under Mediterranean climate conditions in Turkey. This study aims t...
Predictability of monthly streamflow discharge using remote sensing precipitation data by data driven models
Çolak, Mehmet Ali; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul; Department of Civil Engineering (2017)
Predictability of stream flow has been the focus of many studies involving water resources management and hydroelectric energy production. Many hydrologic models have been developed to predict future and current streamflow at various time lags and locations. However, these physically-based models require reanalyzed future data sets (particularly precipitation forcing data) to predict future streamflow. Alternatively, data driven models can also provide predictions without the need of future projections by r...
Citation Formats
E. Düzenli, “Decadal variability analysis of extreme precipitation in Turkey and its relationship with teleconnection patterns,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2017.