Extreme precipitation and drought monitoring in northeastern China using general circulation models and pan evaporation-based drought indices

Date

2018-01-01

Author

Faiz, Muhammad Abrar
Liu, Dong
Fu, Qiang
Wrzesinski, Dariusz
Baig, Faisal
Nabi, Ghulam
Khan, Muhammad Imran
Li, Tianxiao
Cui, Song

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

235
views

0
downloads

The evaluation of precipitation extremes and the usage of appropriate drought indices are very important for assessment of natural disasters (i.e. floods and drought). For this purpose, we calculated values of indices that reflect precipitation extremes and 3 drought indices, i.e. the composite index (CI), standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and reconnaissance drought index (RDI), with reformulation of pan evaporation and Penman-Monteith equations (denoted as CI-Pan, RDI-Pan, RDI-PM, and SPEI-PM), based on observed data fom 1961-2005. Output from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical model simulations was also used to identify discrepancies in the model simulations. The results showed that wet-day precipitation increased at a rate of 1.9 mm yr(-1) over the entire study area. During the whole time period, the simple daily intensity index exhibited a non-significant decreasing trend compared to other precipitation indices. The number of consecutive wet days showed a negative trend, while the number of consecutive dry days showed a positive trend with a slope of 0.33 d yr(-1). Very small differences were found between the results of the multi-model ensemble mean and the values of the extreme precipitation indices assessed from the in situ stations. The performance of reformulated drought indices is significant in monitoring drought events in the study area. A comparison of the indices showed that the performance of reformulated drought indices is better than that of the standard RDI and SPEI at all stations. The highest CI-Pan value (0.23) was observed in July, and the 2 lowest values, -0.6 and -0.7, were observed in April and September, respectively, indicating that the latter 2 months are highly prone to drought.

Subject Keywords

Drought, Precipitation, General circulation model, Water resources management, Pan Evaporation

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/68512

Journal

CLIMATE RESEARCH

DOI

https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01503

Collections

Department of Civil Engineering, Article

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Situational analysis of flood and drought in Rwanda Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel; Rufangura, Patrick; Jayaweera, MPC Herath; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa (2017-6-19) In this paper, a situational analysis of flood and drought in Rwanda were assessed using AQUEDUCT Global Flood Analyzer based on the population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and urban damage for current and future projections (2030). In order to estimate future changes, three scenarios from: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report which represents climate change and socioeconomic change scen...
Decadal variability analysis of extreme precipitation in Turkey and its relationship with teleconnection patterns Düzenli, Eren; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul; Willems, Patrick; Department of Civil Engineering (2017) Natural disasters as droughts and floods originate as a consequence of excessive decrease or increase in precipitation amount and/or frequency, while the variability in the climate significantly impacts the expected change in precipitation. Given that many global ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns (AO, WeMO, NAO, SOI, etc.) are tightly related with the climate variability and show decadal/multi-decadal oscillations, it is important to analyze precipitation variability at the decadal time-scale to unde...
Drought analysis using CORDEX simulations over the mediterranean climate regions of Turkey Poyraz, Anıl Yıldırım; Yücel, İsmail; Department of Civil Engineering (2018) Drought has been a significant result of climate change that causes variance on precipitation regimes. Mediterranean region is one of the hotspots of the world in this respect. Dry summers and rainy winters -the characteristic of this climate type- makes this region more vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Hence, it is important to monitor drought considering the increasing population and economic facilities in the regions that are under Mediterranean climate conditions in Turkey. This study aims t...
Analysis of the 2007 and 2013 Droughts in Turkey by NOAH Hydrological Model Bulut, Burak; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul (2016-10-01) Analysis of drought, which is classified as a natural disaster, is globally considering the damage it gives. As a result detection of its characteristics is essential for understanding and reducing the effects of this natural disaster and for imminent prediction. In this study, soil moisture estimates obtained from NOAH hydrological model and normalized difference vegetation index obtained from MODIS observations are used to analysis the recent droughts in Turkey. With the utilization of these parameters th...
Decadal variability analysis of extreme precipitation in Turkey and its relationship with teleconnection patterns Duzenli, Eren; Tabari, Hossein; Willems, Patrick; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul (2018-11-15) Natural disasters such as droughts and floods originate as a consequence of excessive high or low precipitation amount and/or frequency. Due to the temporal persistence of the latter, the disasters tend to cluster in time. Because global ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns with (multi-) decadal oscillations are tightly related with the precipitation variability, it is useful to analyse precipitation variability at the same timescale to understand any possible connection between them. In this study, dec...

Citation Formats

M. A. Faiz et al., “Extreme precipitation and drought monitoring in northeastern China using general circulation models and pan evaporation-based drought indices,” CLIMATE RESEARCH, pp. 231–250, 2018, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/68512.