Probabilistic models for the initiation of seismic soil liquefaction

Çetin, Kemal Önder
Kiureghian, AD
Seed, RB
A Bayesian framework for probabilistic assessment of the initiation of seismic soil liquefaction is described, A database, consisting of post-earthquake field observations of soil performance, in conjunction with in situ "index" test results is used for the development of probabilistically-based seismic soil liquefaction initiation correlations. The proposed stochastic model allows full and consistent representation of all relevant uncertainties. including (a) measurement/estimation errors, (b) model imperfection, (c) statistical uncertainty, and (d) inherent variabilities. Different sets of probabilistic liquefaction boundary curves are developed for the seismic soil liquefaction initiation hazard problem, representing various sources of uncertainty that are intrinsic to the problem. The resulting correlations represent a significant improvement over prior efforts, producing predictive relationships with enhanced accuracy and greatly reduced overall model uncertainty.


Probabilistic Model for the Assessment of Cyclically Induced Reconsolidation (Volumetric) Settlements
Çetin, Kemal Önder; Wu, Jiaer; Kammerer, Annie M.; Seed, Raymond B. (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2009-03-01)
A maximum likelihood framework for the probabilistic assessment of cyclically induced reconsolidation settlements of saturated cohesionless soil sites is described. For this purpose, over 200 case history sites were carefully studied. After screening for data quality and completeness, the resulting database is composed of 49 high-quality, cyclically induced ground settlement case histories from seven different earthquakes. For these case history sites, settlement predictions by currently available methods o...
Probabilistic methods for estimating the seismic deformations of underground structures
Soyman, Kadir Buğra; Gülerce, Zeynep; Department of Civil Engineering (2018)
In seismic design of underground structures, simplified semi-deterministic methods based on the stiffness of the soil and the underground structure are used to estimate the seismic deformations. Generally, peak ground acceleration (PGA) value for different hazard levels are provided by the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) analysis, but a single (and deterministic) PGA value is employed in deformation calculations. The objective of this study is to propose a fully probabilistic framework for es...
Probabilistic Models for Cyclic Straining of Saturated Clean Sands
Çetin, Kemal Önder; Wu, Jiaer; Kammerer, Annie M.; Seed, Raymond B. (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2009-03-01)
A maximum likelihood framework for the probabilistic assessment of postcyclic straining of saturated clean sands is described. Databases consisting of cyclic laboratory test results including maximum shear and postcyclic volumetric strains in conjunction with relative density, number of stress (strain) cycles, and "index" test results were used for the development of probabilistically based postcyclic strain correlations. For this purpose, in addition to the compilation of existing data from literature, a s...
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for east anatolian fault zone using planar source models
Menekşe, Akın; Gülerce, Zeynep; Department of Civil Engineering (2015)
The objective of this study is to perform probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) using planar seismic source characterization models for East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) and to update the design ground motions to be used in the region. Development of planar seismic source models requires the definition of source geometry in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane angles and segmentation points for each segment and associating the observed seismicity with defined fault systems. This complicat...
The use of the SPT-based seismic soil liquefaction triggering evaluation methodology in engineering hazard assessments
Çetin, Kemal Önder; Kayen, Robert E.; Moss, Robb E. S.; Bilge, Habib Tolga; Ilgaç, Makbule (2018-01-01)
Probabilistic and deterministic seismic soil liquefaction triggering methodologies are proposed in Cetin et al. [1]. This manuscript: i) presents the protocols, which need to be followed for the correct use of this methodology for forward engineering (design) assessments, ii) guides the engineers through the procedure, and iii) discusses the "tricks" alongside the protocol. An illustrative soil profile shaken by a scenario earthquake is presented, through which consistent estimations of representative SPT b...
Citation Formats
K. Ö. Çetin, A. Kiureghian, and R. Seed, “Probabilistic models for the initiation of seismic soil liquefaction,” STRUCTURAL SAFETY, pp. 67–82, 2002, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: