Probabilistic models for the initiation of seismic soil liquefaction

Date

2002-01-01

Author

Çetin, Kemal Önder
Kiureghian, AD
Seed, RB

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A Bayesian framework for probabilistic assessment of the initiation of seismic soil liquefaction is described, A database, consisting of post-earthquake field observations of soil performance, in conjunction with in situ "index" test results is used for the development of probabilistically-based seismic soil liquefaction initiation correlations. The proposed stochastic model allows full and consistent representation of all relevant uncertainties. including (a) measurement/estimation errors, (b) model imperfection, (c) statistical uncertainty, and (d) inherent variabilities. Different sets of probabilistic liquefaction boundary curves are developed for the seismic soil liquefaction initiation hazard problem, representing various sources of uncertainty that are intrinsic to the problem. The resulting correlations represent a significant improvement over prior efforts, producing predictive relationships with enhanced accuracy and greatly reduced overall model uncertainty.

Subject Keywords

Bayesian updating, Model error, Statistical uncertainty, Parameter uncertainty, Limit state models, Choice-based sampling, Liquefaction, Liquefaction hazard

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/33123

Journal

STRUCTURAL SAFETY

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1016/s0167-4730(02)00036-x

Collections

Department of Civil Engineering, Article

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Citation Formats

K. Ö. Çetin, A. Kiureghian, and R. Seed, “Probabilistic models for the initiation of seismic soil liquefaction,” STRUCTURAL SAFETY, pp. 67–82, 2002, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/33123.