Assessment of risk paths in construction projects

Risk identification is the most important step in project risk management (PRM), as the risk models are constructed based on previously defined risk sources and their interrelations. Although previous studies have concentrated on a one-way relation between risk factors, there are cause-effect relationships between risk sources, events and consequences. 'Risk paths' represent the causal relationships between risk sources, events and consequences and they should be assessed during risk identification, rather than individual risk factors. Furthermore, a complete risk assessment cannot be achieved without 'vulnerability' that shows the characteristics of a system to react to risk factors. Major aim of this paper is to propose a 'risk path assessment model' to overcome this shortcoming in PRM by combining 'risk path' and 'vulnerability' concepts. The 'risk path assessment model' includes risk and vulnerability (RV) parameters as well as their direct and indirect relationships. The model assesses RV by evaluating the level of vulnerability and magnitude of 'change' in a given project, so that the final impact of risk events on the project cost and duration is obtained.
International Journal of Project Organisation and Management


Buzdogan-Lindenmayr, Ezgi; Kara, Guray; Kestel, Sevtap Ayşe (2019-01-01)
Procurement risk management (PRM) requires a good understanding and assessment of all potential risks. As the procurement industry mostly functions globally and the supply-demand chain forms a dependency structure among all interested parties, the quantification of risks related to the suppliers gain importance. This study presents a systematic PRM to evaluate and quantify the risks of a commodity associated to its suppliers. The probabilistic set up using total probability theorem on the information collec...
Identification of Risk Paths in International Construction Projects Using Structural Equation Modeling
Eybpoosh, Matineh; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2011-12-01)
The major aim of this research is to demonstrate that causal relationships exist among various risk factors that necessitate identification of risk paths, rather than individual risk factors, during risk assessment of construction projects. International construction projects have more complex risk-emergence patterns because they are affected by global and foreign country conditions and project-related factors. Identification of a network of interactive risk paths, each of which initiated from diverse vulne...
Development of a risk management decision support system for intarnational construction projects
Arıkan, Arif Erdem; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Department of Civil Engineering (2005)
It is agreed upon by many researchers that, although risk management (RM) is accepted as one of the critical success factors for construction projects, project participants generally do not have sufficient knowledge pertinent to risk management concept and the number of risk management support tools which facilitate the process is rather low. In order to facilitate risk management activities, decision support tools that will enable risk identification, analysis and response strategy formulation should be de...
A classification problem of credit risk rating investigated and solved by optimisation of the ROC curve
Kurum, Efsun; Yildirak, Kasirga; Weber, Gerhard Wilhelm (2012-09-01)
Estimation of probability of default has considerable importance in risk management applications where default risk is referred to as credit risk. Basel II (Committee on Banking Supervision) proposes a revision to the international capital accord that implies a more prominent role for internal credit risk assessments based on the determination of default probability of borrowers. In our study, we classify borrower firms into rating classes with respect to their default probability. The classification of fir...
Ontology for Relating Risk and Vulnerability to Cost Overrun in International Projects
Fidan, Gulsah; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Tanyer, Ali Murat; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2011-07-01)
Risk management is about identifying risks, assessing their impacts, and developing mitigation strategies to ensure project success. The difference between the expected and actual project outcomes is usually attributed to risk events and how they are managed throughout the project. Although there are several reference frameworks that explain how risks can be managed in construction projects, a major bottleneck is the lack of a common vocabulary for risk-related concepts. Poor definition of risk and patterns...
Citation Formats
G. Ozcan, İ. Dikmen Toker, and M. T. Birgönül, “Assessment of risk paths in construction projects,” International Journal of Project Organisation and Management, pp. 316–316, 2011, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: