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Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions of Turkey’s international civil aviation through 2030

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2019
Kaymak, Deniz
Nowadays, the aviation sector plays a vital role in the economic development of countries by connecting the continents. Air transportation is preferred more and more thanks to its advantages over the other transportation modes. After implementation of liberalization policies in Turkey, the aviation industry has shown a rapid development and the country has taken its place at the forefront in the world air transport. Due to the increasing demand for the aviation industry, inevitably CO2 emissions of the sector increased rapidly. In spite of contributing to climate change in small percentages, the aviation industry is showing a much faster growth trend than other sources of emissions or industries. In this study, Turkey’s CO2 emissions from international civil aviation activities are determined for the years between 2018 and 2030 by modelling Turkey's air passenger traffic demand under different scenarios. In air passenger traffic modeling, it is forecasted that air passenger traffic would reach 375,270 passenger-km according to the high scenario and 283,140 million passenger-km according to the low scenario. According to the high scenario the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of Turkey is estimated to be 6.7% and in the low and medium scenarios, the CAGR is estimated as 4.6% and 5.8%, respectively. By adding fuel efficiency assumptions to the estimated air passenger traffic data, future fuel demand and corresponding CO2 emissions are calculated. As a result, Turkey's CO2 emissions from international civil aviation activities in 2030 are expected to be between 20.62 and 33.33 Mtons. Even in the most optimistic case, CO2 emissions of the international civil aviation of Turkey are tend to increase approximately 27% and under the highest scenario CO2 emissions are expected to double in 2030 compared to 2017 levels. The results of this study demonstrated that CO2 emissions of the civil aviation sector continues to be one of the fastest growing source of the emissions in Turkey. Moreover, it is expected for civil aviation sector to take a large share of the Turkey's carbon budget in the near future.