Forecasting production of fossil fuel sources in Turkey using a comparative regression and ARIMA model

Date

2006-12-01

Author

Ediger, Volkan S.
Akar, Sertac
Ugurlu, Berkin

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

198
views

0
downloads

This study aims at forecasting the most possible curve for domestic fossil fuel production of Turkey to help policy makers to develop policy implications for rapidly growing dependency problem on imported fossil fuels. The fossil fuel dependency problem is international in scope and context and Turkey is a typical example for emerging energy markets of the developing world. We developed a decision support system for forecasting fossil fuel production by applying a regression, ARIMA and SARIMA method to the historical data from 1950 to 2003 in a comparative manner. The method integrates each model by using some decision parameters related to goodness-of-fit and confidence interval, behavior of the curve, and reserves. Different forecasting models are proposed for different fossil fuel types. The best result is obtained for oil since the reserve classifications used it is much better defined them for the others. Our findings show that the fossil fuel production peak has already been reached; indicating the total fossil fuel production of the country will diminish and theoretically will end in 2038. However, production is expected to end in 2019 for hard coal, in 2024 for natural gas, in 2029 for oil and 2031 for asphaltite. The gap between the fossil fuel consumption and production is growing enormously and it reaches in 2030 to approximately twice of what it is in 2000.

Subject Keywords

General Energy, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/67272

Journal

ENERGY POLICY

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2005.08.023

Collections

Department of Geological Engineering, Article

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

The merit order effect of wind and river type hydroelectricity generation on Turkish electricity prices Acar, Berkan; Selcuk, Orhun; Dastan, Seyit Ali (Elsevier BV, 2019-09-01) The environmental concerns and dependency on gas imports push Turkish policy makers to find ways of increasing the share of renewable sources in electricity generation. Providing incentives for renewable energy in the form of feed-in-tariffs is one of the measures to achieve this goal. Basing on the data of Turkish electricity market operator, we quantified the magnitude of the price effects of wind and river type hydro generations on hourly average of day-ahead prices. We find that wind and river type hydr...
Variable renewable energy technologies in the Turkish electricity market: Quantile regression analysis of the merit-order effect Sirin, Selahattin Murat; Yılmaz, Berna Nisa (Elsevier BV, 2020-09-01) The share of variable renewable energy sources in power supply has increased significantly in many countries; however, this increase has also created problems in electricity markets. While the average day-ahead market price has declined in several markets (the merit-order effect), the remuneration mechanisms in some countries have to be revised due to the surge in financial costs. Yet, further research is needed to understand the implications of the merit-order effect for remuneration mechanisms thoroughly....
CO2 emissions vs. CO2 responsibility: An input-output approach for the Turkish economy Tunç, Gül İpek; Akbostancı Özkazanç, Elif (Elsevier BV, 2007-02-01) Recently, global warming (greenhouse effect) and its effects have become one of the hottest topics in the world agenda. There have been several international attempts to reduce the negative effects of global warming. The Kyoto Protocol can be cited as the most important agreement which tries to limit the countries' emissions within a time horizon. For this reason, it becomes important to calculate the greenhouse gas emissions of countries. The aim of this study is to estimate the amount Of CO2-the most impo...
Are global warming and economic growth compatible? Evidence from five OPEC countries? Sarı, Ramazan; Soytaş, Uğur (Elsevier BV, 2009-10-01) In this paper, we investigate the relationship between carbon emissions, income, energy and total employment in selected OPEC countries for the period of 1971-2002. We mainly focus on the link between energy use and income. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, we find that there is a cointegrating relationship between the variables in Saudi Arabia only. The long run forcing variables for income are determined to be employment and energy for Saudi Arabia. In Indonesia, Algeria, Niger...
Mathematical modeling for energy policy analysis Kat, Bora; Güven, Yusuf Çağlar; Voyvoda, Ebru; Department of Industrial Engineering (2011) As is now generally accepted, climate change and environmental degradation has largely been triggered by carbon emissions and energy modeling for policy analysis has therefore attained renewed urgency. It is important for governments to satisfy emission targets and timetables set down by international agreements without disregarding macroeconomic concerns and restrictions. In this study, we present a large-scale nonlinear optimization model that allows the analysis of macroeconomic and multi-sectoral energy...

Citation Formats

V. S. Ediger, S. Akar, and B. Ugurlu, “Forecasting production of fossil fuel sources in Turkey using a comparative regression and ARIMA model,” ENERGY POLICY, pp. 3836–3846, 2006, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/67272.