Probabilistic Assessment of Overtopping Reliability of a Dam

Date

2006-05-23

Author

Yanmaz, Ali Melih

Metadata

Show full item record

Item Usage Stats

182
views

0
downloads

Probabilistic methods, which consider resistance and load parameters as random variables, are more realistic than conventional deterministic methods for determining the safety level of a dam. This study is based on a probabilistic assessment of overtopping reliability of a flood detention dam. In the analysis, the inflow hydrograph parameters and the initial reservoir level prior to the allocation of the flood in the reservoir are accepted as random variables. A bivariate flood frequency analysis is performed in which the annual maximum peak discharges and the surface runoff volumes of the floods are handled as the random variables, using bivariate gamma probability density function. This operation yielded a number of flood hydrographs having different peak discharges and runoff volumes under a particular return period. Using this information, family of return period curves relating the runoff volume to peak discharge are generated at the dam site. Maximum reservoir elevation is determined by performing reservoir routing based on Monte Carlo simulation. This calculation is repeated for various combinations of possible flood hydrographs under a constant return period to observe the variation of overtopping reliability. It is, therefore, intended to find the most critical case that is likely to occur at the dam site. The findings of the present analysis may be used in decisionmaking for the crest elevation of the dam, which is safe against overtopping.

Subject Keywords

Flood, Overtopping, Dam, Probabilistic assessment, Reliability, Monte Carlo simulation

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/72499
http://balwois.com/wp-content/uploads/old_proc/ffp-630.pdf

Conference Name

International Conference on Water Observation and Information System for Decision Support (23 - 26 Mayıs 2006)

Collections

Department of Civil Engineering, Conference / Seminar

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

A Reliability Model for Bridge Abutment Scour Yanmaz, Ali Melih (2004-01-01) Deterministic scour prediction equations for bridge abutments consider only the effects of hydraulic parameters and do not take the uncertainties of scouring parameters into account. Treatment of these uncertainties would provide the means for risk evaluation in bridge foundation design. Herein, a static reliability model is developed for the assessment of local scouring reliability around bridge abutments having relatively short lengths. This model is based on resistance-loading interference incorporating ...
Assessment of uncertainties in bed load rate and water surface profile computations Genç, Gizem; Yanmaz, Ali Melih; Department of Civil Engineering (2023-1-12) Many processes in water resources engineering are disposed to uncertainty due to the inherent variation of many inputs and parameters in time and place. This study mainly consists of two parts. In the first part, probabilistic variations of bed load rates are examined using Meyer-Peter Müller and Einstein-Brown approaches under the effect of different bed slopes, bed materials, and flow rates in the Miliç Basin. The results of the first part offer an insight into the probabilistic nature of bed resistance. ...
Probabilistic modeling of plane failure in rock slopes DUZGUN, HSB; Yücemen, Mehmet Semih; Karpuz, Celal (2003-07-09) The basic aim of this study is to formulate a probabilistic method by which sources of uncertainties can be taken into account and systematically analyzed in dealing with the rock slope stability problem. For this purpose, the advanced first-order second-moment (AFOSM) method and the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) procedure are used to model the plane failure problem in rock slopes. The modeling of plane failure by the AFOSM and the MCS methods requires the understanding of the basic mechanism of plane failur...
Probabilistic models for the assessment of cyclic soil deformations Bilge, Habib Tolga; Çetin, Kemal Önder (null; 2006-12-01) A maximum likelihood framework for probabilistic assessment of post cyclic deformations is described. A database, consisting of cyclic laboratory test results including maximum shear strains in conjunction with relative density, number of stress (strain) cycles and "index" test results is used for the development of probabilistically-based post cyclic deformation correlations. For this purpose series of stress controlled cyclic triaxial tests were performed on laboratory constituted clean sand specimens con...
Comparison of safety factors obtained from limit equilibrium methods and finite element analyses Engin, Volkan; Toker, Nabi Kartal (2012-06-30) Designing with limit equilibrium methods involves a factor of safety as a measure of stability, i.e. how far the resisting structure is from the limit state, on the safe side. On the other hand, current engineering practice employs finite element programs (such as PLAXIS) which, instead of using a conventionally-defined factor of safety, reduces the overall shear strength of the soil by introducing a reduction factor that is applied to soil strength (i.e. tan  and c values). Such fundamental differences in...

Citation Formats

A. M. Yanmaz, “Probabilistic Assessment of Overtopping Reliability of a Dam,” presented at the International Conference on Water Observation and Information System for Decision Support (23 - 26 Mayıs 2006), Ohrid, Macedonia, 2006, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/72499.