Probabilistic Assessment of Overtopping Reliability of a Dam

2006-05-23
Probabilistic methods, which consider resistance and load parameters as random variables, are more realistic than conventional deterministic methods for determining the safety level of a dam. This study is based on a probabilistic assessment of overtopping reliability of a flood detention dam. In the analysis, the inflow hydrograph parameters and the initial reservoir level prior to the allocation of the flood in the reservoir are accepted as random variables. A bivariate flood frequency analysis is performed in which the annual maximum peak discharges and the surface runoff volumes of the floods are handled as the random variables, using bivariate gamma probability density function. This operation yielded a number of flood hydrographs having different peak discharges and runoff volumes under a particular return period. Using this information, family of return period curves relating the runoff volume to peak discharge are generated at the dam site. Maximum reservoir elevation is determined by performing reservoir routing based on Monte Carlo simulation. This calculation is repeated for various combinations of possible flood hydrographs under a constant return period to observe the variation of overtopping reliability. It is, therefore, intended to find the most critical case that is likely to occur at the dam site. The findings of the present analysis may be used in decisionmaking for the crest elevation of the dam, which is safe against overtopping.
International Conference on Water Observation and Information System for Decision Support (23 - 26 Mayıs 2006)

Suggestions

A Reliability Model for Bridge Abutment Scour
Yanmaz, Ali Melih (2004-01-01)
Deterministic scour prediction equations for bridge abutments consider only the effects of hydraulic parameters and do not take the uncertainties of scouring parameters into account. Treatment of these uncertainties would provide the means for risk evaluation in bridge foundation design. Herein, a static reliability model is developed for the assessment of local scouring reliability around bridge abutments having relatively short lengths. This model is based on resistance-loading interference incorporating ...
Probabilistic modeling of plane failure in rock slopes
DUZGUN, HSB; Yücemen, Mehmet Semih; Karpuz, Celal (2003-07-09)
The basic aim of this study is to formulate a probabilistic method by which sources of uncertainties can be taken into account and systematically analyzed in dealing with the rock slope stability problem. For this purpose, the advanced first-order second-moment (AFOSM) method and the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) procedure are used to model the plane failure problem in rock slopes. The modeling of plane failure by the AFOSM and the MCS methods requires the understanding of the basic mechanism of plane failur...
Probabilistic models for the assessment of cyclic soil deformations
Bilge, Habib Tolga; Çetin, Kemal Önder (null; 2006-12-01)
A maximum likelihood framework for probabilistic assessment of post cyclic deformations is described. A database, consisting of cyclic laboratory test results including maximum shear strains in conjunction with relative density, number of stress (strain) cycles and "index" test results is used for the development of probabilistically-based post cyclic deformation correlations. For this purpose series of stress controlled cyclic triaxial tests were performed on laboratory constituted clean sand specimens con...
Comparison of safety factors obtained from limit equilibrium methods and finite element analyses
Engin, Volkan; Toker, Nabi Kartal (2012-06-30)
Designing with limit equilibrium methods involves a factor of safety as a measure of stability, i.e. how far the resisting structure is from the limit state, on the safe side. On the other hand, current engineering practice employs finite element programs (such as PLAXIS) which, instead of using a conventionally-defined factor of safety, reduces the overall shear strength of the soil by introducing a reduction factor that is applied to soil strength (i.e. tan  and c values). Such fundamental differences in...
A visual interactive approach for scenario-based stochastic multi-objective problems and an application
Balibek, E.; Köksalan, Mustafa Murat (2012-12-01)
In many practical applications of stochastic programming, discretization of continuous random variables in the form of a scenario tree is required. In this paper, we deal with the randomness in scenario generation and present a visual interactive method for scenario-based stochastic multi-objective problems. The method relies on multi-variate statistical analysis of solutions obtained from a multi-objective stochastic problem to construct joint confidence regions for the objective function values. The decis...
Citation Formats
A. M. Yanmaz, “Probabilistic Assessment of Overtopping Reliability of a Dam,” presented at the International Conference on Water Observation and Information System for Decision Support (23 - 26 Mayıs 2006), Ohrid, Macedonia, 2006, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/72499.