Assessment of Model Uncertainty in the Prediction of Seasonal and Annual Variability in the Black Sea

Salihoğlu, Barış
Fach, Bettina Andrea
Akoğlu, Ekin
A new generation (circulation, biogeochemical and a higher trophic level) model for the Black Sea was developed to provide an integrated analysis of ecosystem attributes that contributes to policy oriented criteria's of the European Union's ambitious Marine Strategy Framework Directive towards achieving Good Environmental Status by 2020. The biogeochemical model, including the carbonate module, comprises thirty state variables. The higher trophic level model includes thirteen fish species. The model system was used to carry out hindcast analyses for 1980-2013 period and forecast analyses for the 2013-2020 time period assuming different scenarios of anthropogenic pressure acting on the Black Sea. The results of hindcast simulations indicate that the Black Sea model system demonstrates a range of skill, with physical variables having the most skill followed by chemical variables. The HTL model has more skill for small pelagic fish (e.g. Anchovy) than larger pelagic and demersal fish. We show that capturing mesoscale variability is of great importance in such models and directly influences model skill to capture seasonal and regional variability of phytoplankton blooms, specifically the skill to correctly resolve bloom timing and duration.


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The purpose of this research project is to develop an optimal management mechanism for the economic and social sustainability of European fisheries. Throughout the project, development and feasibility of a rights based management mechanism which efficiently allocates the fishing rights in Member States will be investigated. This mechanism will not have a high data demanding characteristic and will also be adaptable to other regions of fisheries in the third countries. Currently, Common Fisheries Policy (CFP...
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PERSEUS project aims to identify the most relevant pressures exerted on the ecosystems of the Southern European Seas (SES), highlighting knowledge and data gaps that endanger the achievement of SES Good Environmental Status (GES) as mandated by the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). A complementary approach has been adopted, by a meta-analysis of existing literature on pressure/impact/knowledge gaps summarized in tables related to the MSFD descriptors, discriminating open waters from coastal areas....
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The Water Framework Directive(WFD) of the European Union requires achieving good quantitative and qualitative status for all water bodies within its territory. For achieving good chemical and ecological status, the Member States were expected to comply with the Environmental Quality Standards(EQSs) for 45 dangerous substances identified as "priority" and river basin “specific pollutants” requiring identification. This study aims to identify the potential point pollution sources of the river basin specific p...
Citation Formats
B. Salihoğlu, B. A. Fach, and E. Akoğlu, “Assessment of Model Uncertainty in the Prediction of Seasonal and Annual Variability in the Black Sea,” 2016, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: