Risk assessment and pricing of natural hazards earthquake case

Date

2015-10-16

Author

Kestel, Sevtap Ayşe

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The potential impacts of natural hazards are enormous. In such catastrophes the economies and human lives are exposed to unpredictable losses. Probabilistic modeling of such hazards require long term historical information which enables researchers to determine the potential risk for certain periods. However, even though its increasing trend in the frequency of such events, the factors influencing the magnitude of the losses are diverse and many. Earthquakes are the most severe one as its occurrence and severity are not predictable compared to meteorological hazards. This study gives an overview of risk assessment approaches in determining the likelihood of such an event, and then explains, in specific, probabilistic seismic analysis approach to assess the risk. Loss estimation and risk transfer methods which are commonly used in practice are presented. A Bayesian approach is applied to estimate the economical loss caused by an earthquake to determine the risk premium. The proposed approach is employed to Turkish earthquake data for a certain region and compared to the rates depicted by Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP-DASK).

Subject Keywords

Earthquake risk, TCIP, Bayesian modeling, Risk premium

URI

http://2015.iccesen.org/page/invited-speakers
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/88047
http://iccesen.org/uploads/Skestel_abstract.pdf

Conference Name

2nd International Conference On Computational And Experimental Science And Engineering (ICCESEN-2015), 14-19 October 2015

Collections

Graduate School of Applied Mathematics, Conference / Seminar

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Citation Formats

S. A. Kestel, “Risk assessment and pricing of natural hazards earthquake case,” presented at the 2nd International Conference On Computational And Experimental Science And Engineering (ICCESEN-2015), 14-19 October 2015, Antalya, Turkey, 2015, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: http://2015.iccesen.org/page/invited-speakers.