Risk assessment and pricing of natural hazards earthquake case

The potential impacts of natural hazards are enormous. In such catastrophes the economies and human lives are exposed to unpredictable losses. Probabilistic modeling of such hazards require long term historical information which enables researchers to determine the potential risk for certain periods. However, even though its increasing trend in the frequency of such events, the factors influencing the magnitude of the losses are diverse and many. Earthquakes are the most severe one as its occurrence and severity are not predictable compared to meteorological hazards. This study gives an overview of risk assessment approaches in determining the likelihood of such an event, and then explains, in specific, probabilistic seismic analysis approach to assess the risk. Loss estimation and risk transfer methods which are commonly used in practice are presented. A Bayesian approach is applied to estimate the economical loss caused by an earthquake to determine the risk premium. The proposed approach is employed to Turkish earthquake data for a certain region and compared to the rates depicted by Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP-DASK).


Multicomponent seismic loss estimation on the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Turkey)
Karim Zadeh Naghshineh, Shaghayegh; Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül; Erberik, Murat Altuğ; Yakut, Ahmet (null; 2015-12-14)
Seismic loss estimation is essential to incorporate seismic risk of structures into an efficient decision-making framework. Evaluation of seismic damage of structures requires a multidisciplinary approach including earthquake source characterization, seismological prediction of earthquake-induced ground motions, prediction of structural responses exposed to ground shaking, and finally estimation of induced damage to structures. As the study region, Erzincan, a city on the eastern part of Turkey is selected ...
Estimation of earthquake insurance Premium rates Turkish catastrophe insurance pool case
TEMOÇİN, BÜŞRA ZEYNEP; Kestel, Sevtap Ayşe (2016-06-01)
Earthquakes are the natural catastrophes which have the highest unpredictability; destructive earthquakes appear less frequently in time and space. However, the financial impact of such earthquakes on human lives and economies is disastrous. The prediction on the occurrence of an earthquake in time, magnitude and location is expressed in terms of their joint probabilities. The estimation on the economic losses mainly depend on the properties of the structure. The variability in these variables makes it diff...
Geotechnical characterization of soils prone to rainfall-induced landslides in Rize (Northern Turkey)
Üyetürk, Celal Emre; Huvaj Sarıhan, Nejan; Department of Civil Engineering (2019)
Landslides are common type of natural hazards around the world. Every year, hundreds of landslides are induced by rainfall in Rize. These landslides are shallow failures, generally having a maximum depth of 5 m. Although many of these landslides are observed every year, there is limited data on characteristics of these soils in the literature. Characterizing these soils is of paramount importance for numerical modeling of the landslide mechanisms, for landslide susceptibility mapping and for establishing ra...
Risk Mitigation for Earthquakes and Landslides (LESSLOSS)
Polat, Hakkı(2007-8-31)
Earthquake and landslide risk is a public safety issue that requires appropriate mitigation measures and means to protect citizens, property, infrastructure and the built cultural heritage. Mitigating this risk requires integrated and coordinated action that embraces a wide range of organisations and disciplines. For this reason, the LESSLOSS IP is formulated by a large number of European Centres of excellence in earthquake and geotechnical engineering integrating in the traditional fields of engineers and ...
Broadband ground motion simulation within Duzce city (Turkey)
Özmen, Ekin; Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül; Kestel, Sevtap Ayşe; Department of Earthquake Studies (2019)
Earthquakes have more hazardous and devastating effects in populated areas. To prevent damage and reduce the risks, broadband records are collected to use in the seismic hazard assessment and engineering seismology. In areas with significant seismic activity and insufficient seismic networks, the simulated ground motions become more important. Broadband ground motion simulations are performed for 12 November 1999 Duzce earthquake. Deterministic simulations are performed for low frequency part and stochastic...
Citation Formats
S. A. Kestel, “Risk assessment and pricing of natural hazards earthquake case,” presented at the 2nd International Conference On Computational And Experimental Science And Engineering (ICCESEN-2015), 14-19 October 2015, Antalya, Turkey, 2015, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: http://2015.iccesen.org/page/invited-speakers.