Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption

Date

2021-05-01

Author

Gungor, Bekir Oray
Ertugrul, H. Murat
Soytaş, Uğur

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

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This paper investigates the effects of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption by employing a unique data set of daily data covering the 2014-2020 period. Forecast performance of benchmark ARIMA models are evaluated for both before and after the outbreak. Even the best-fit model forecasts fail miserably after the Covid19 outbreak. Adding volatility improves forecasts. Consumption volatility increases due to the outbreak. Policies targeting volatility can reduce adverse impacts of similar shocks on market participants, tax revenues, and vulnerable groups.

Subject Keywords

Gasoline consumption, ARIMA models, ARCH family models

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/90025

Journal

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120637

Collections

Department of Business Administration, Article

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Citation Formats

B. O. Gungor, H. M. Ertugrul, and U. Soytaş, “Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption,” TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, pp. 0–0, 2021, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/90025.