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Web-Based Risk Assessment Tool Using Integrated Duration-Cost Influence Network Model
Date
2012-09-01
Author
Dikmen Toker, İrem
Birgönül, Mustafa Talat
Tah, Joseph H. M.
Ozer, Ahmet Hamdi
Metadata
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This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License
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The major challenges of project risk assessment may be attributed to the knowledge requirements for determining the level of uncertainty and the development of complex models to predict project outcomes. The duration-cost influence network is an adequate model that can be used for activity-based risk modeling. In this study, a scenario analysis feature is added to this model and a Web-based tool is developed that can be used to calculate risk-adjusted duration and cost, considering the risks affecting cost and duration of individual activities. Monte Carlo simulation is used to create scenarios, and the output of these scenarios is calculated by using the cost-duration influence system that simulates the vulnerability of the project to the identified risk factors. The Web-based tool can be used by decision makers during the preplanning stage of construction projects to estimate the cost and duration implications of various risk occurrence scenarios, determine contingencies, and prepare risk-management plans. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000547. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Subject Keywords
Strategy and Management
,
Industrial relations
,
Civil and Structural Engineering
,
Building and Construction
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/41167
Journal
JOURNAL OF CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT-ASCE
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0000547
Collections
Department of Civil Engineering, Article